I’m sure it is not news to anyone when I say that we just a measly four days until the Phillies 2011 Season Opener!
I guess it is as good as a time as any to preview this upcoming season. I will do another look at the roster, once the final 25 is completed, but for now, I will give you a general overview of how this upcoming season is looking. At the end of the post, I will give my offensive and pitching predictions for this upcoming season and
I will reveal where I think the Phillies will finish in the NL East this year.
Let’s go position by position:
Catcher: We all know that Chooch will be starting and Brian Schiender will be the backup catcher. I’m not worried bout Ruiz’s struggles during this spring, he will be fine this season and Schiender will do his solid job in the backup role once again.
First Base: Ryan Howard is the primary guy here obviously. I would not be surprised to see the rare start for Ross Gload or John Mayberry here since I picture both to be on the roster.
Second Base: With Chase Utley on the DL, I am leaning towards Luis Castillo here starting on Friday. He’s a qualified veteran and has been playing substantially better over the last few spring training games. I’m not sure if Michael Martinez makes the roster, Josh Barfield is out, I am still pulling for Delwyn Young to make the roster. Oh, and we all know Wilson Valdez will be there come Friday.
Third Base: Placido Polanco appears to be healthy and ill have this spot. He’s an ideal 2hole hitter, never strikes out and always seems to work the count. Where he will hit in our lineup come Friday, I cannot honestly tell you, but he’ll be there.
Shortstop: Jimmy Rollins fills in here. He does look healthy, and has still proven he loves popping up the first pitch in the infield, but Rollins is healthy and may end up hitting 3rd in the lineup.
Left Field: Left Field is Raaauuullll’s territory! He has shown a lot of life this spring and appears to be offensively healthy so I am expecting a big year from our outfielder.
Center Field: There’s talk that Shane Victorino will actually lead off this season. When you look at the current lineup, this could be a very real scenario. He seems to be more dedicated to getting on base and stealing bases as opposed to hitting home runs like he seemed to be attempting to do last year.
Right Field: After seeing several games this spring, I think it is pretty clear who the starting right fielder this season: Ben Francisco. Francisco has been amongst the league leaders in hits, RBIs, and home runs this spring. From day 1, he has come out of the gates firing and was pretty much a lock to right field even before Domonic Brown got hurt.
Starting Pitchers: You all know the 5 starters that will be gracing the rotation this season. Roy “Doc” Halladay, Clifton “Cliff” Lee, Cole “Hollywood” Hamels, Roy “No real nickname” Oswalt, and last, but not least, “Big” Joe Blanton. The key to those 5 is health. If they are healthy, they can be some of the best in the game, they just need to keep going all season.
Relievers: Brad Lidge is hurt so the closing duties are expected to be shared by Ryan Madson and Jose Contreras. The Phillies have a solid bullpen regardless of what some may say. Madson and Contreras were both very sharp last season; J.C. Romero is a quality lefty when he’s tossing strikes as well. There are talks of bringing 12 pitchers so there will be 7 relievers. Excluding Lidge, the pen should look something like Madson, Contreras, Romero, Antonio Bastardo, Kyle Kendrick, David Herndon, and Danys Baez.
Predictions:
Offense: On contrary to what many will say, the Phillies’ offense this season will be alright. Yes, Jayson “Money-Bags” Werth will be missed, but the hitters will survive. The Phillies won the most game in the big leagues last season despite a 2 month offense drought where they couldn’t string more then 2 hits together in back to back games. Somehow, they overcame this and how did that happen? The pitching.
This year’s staff, as I will get to later, is stronger than last year’s rotation. We will not need to score as many runs and therefore, these worries are not as big of a concern as some are making it out to be. Our regulars will hit; Utley will come back and be as strong as ever and the Phillies will enough runs to get by. Plus, Ben Francisco is a heck of a lot better than people give him credit for. The trio of Francisco, Gload, and Mayberry will provide an adequate replacement for Werth.
Pitching: Pitching will not be an issue for the Phillies this season. I am seeing a very successful season from all 5 of our starters. I’m expecting Halladay to be even better than last season, and if spring is an indication, this will be the case. He only went 4-0 with a 0.42 ERA during the preseason.
I see Lee winning at least 18 games and Oswalt and Hamels winning around 15 a piece. Blanton should improve on his 9 wins from last season and gather in the 10-13 range as well.
Our bullpen will be strong, Baez looks better this spring than he did last year and he will play a pivotal role in the success or failure of this bullpen. Contreras, Romero and Madson should be steady this season; Herndon should improve over his rookie season and Bastardo has electric stuff, if he develops control of it.
Overall: I think the Phillies are in good shape to make the postseason once again. I am going to see somewhere between 95-98 wins and first place in the National League East. I will not make a playoff prediction for this club until the postseason actually gets here.
Here is my final roster prediction, excluding the injured Chase Utley and Brad Lidge:
Catchers (2): Carlos Ruiz, Brian Schiender
Infielders (6): Luis Castillo, Ross Gload, Ryan Howard, Placido Polanco, Jimmy Rollins, Wilson Valdez
Outfielders (4): Ben Francisco, Raul Ibanez, John Mayberry, Shane Victorino, Delwyn Young
Starters (5): Joe Blanton, Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt
Relievers (7): Danys Baez, Antonio Bastardo, Jose Contreras, David Herndon, Kyle Kendrick, Ryan Madson, J.C. Romero,
Until we meet again Phillies Fans; Happy Readings and Go Phillies!
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